AvidThink 2026 January Recap

If you haven’t yet checked out our Predictions 2026 series on the NextGenInfra.io site, head over there now and see what leading executives from the infrastructure space predict will happen in 2026 — and no, it’s not all about AI (though there’s plenty of that too). Plus, if you missed the news, we launched our 2026 Enterprise Connectivity Report and an associated showcase featuring videos from Arista, Aryaka, Meter, Nile, Ericsson, Netskope, HPE Juniper, Kyndryl, Palo Alto Networks, Shasta Cloud, and our analyst friends from ACG Research and Dell’Oro. The report includes results from our Q4 2025 survey on enterprise networking, including the state of security and network convergence. To learn more about what else we found in our survey, download a copy of our report.

Here's what's in store for this month's newsletter:

Keep your eye on NextGenInfra.io for upcoming showcases — Data Center Networking for AI is next!

2026 is kicking off just as we expected in the infrastructure space. It’s AI, AI, and more AI. More capital investment dollars thrown at AI, more data center build-outs, more silicon (GPUs, xPUs, any-PUs), more energy contract lock-ups with power purchase agreements (PPAs) collected like those ‘Pokémon catch ’em all’ cards. Meanwhile, ongoing advances in the reasoning capabilities of foundation models enable longer autonomous task durations for AI agents, and better frameworks and guardrails ensure more consistent, desired outcomes. The subtle yet critical gains by Claude Opus 4.5, GPT 5.2, and Gemini 3 over previous iterations seemed to have crossed a threshold where even skeptics acknowledge that agents are now adding to productivity in undeniable ways. And the internet’s gone gaga over OpenClaw (formerly known as Moltbot, formerly known as Clawdbot), with Moltbook (insecure vibe-coded Facebook for “intelligent” agents) becoming the new destination site for humans with too much time on their hands.

Even as we marvel at the mimicry of OpenClaw bots interacting (along with some nefarious humans in agent clothing who’ve usurped the API), Moravec’s paradox continues to rear its head. Agents and models can still fail in ways that reveal the surprising “dumbness” of these intelligent agents.

In any case, I expect we’ll see advances in agentic AI and new buzzwords like the cognition layer (or fabric or core or network) make their marketing rounds as we gear up for more events like MWC Barcelona 2026 (hope to see you there if you’re going). I’m just glad for a travel break in January to close out our upcoming data center networking report.

– Roy for the AvidThink Team

Check out our most recent articles, including our “Unlocking the Programmable Network” series on the state of and opportunity with telco APIs. And if you missed our Shadow AI post discussing the evolution of DPI, you can follow the link below.

Next-Gen Enterprise Connectivity 2026 Showcase is up, right alongside Predictions 2026. Head over the NextGenInfra.io to check both of them out. Download the Enterprise Connectivity report, and read the detailed interviews with Jeff Raymond of Arista, Renuka Nardkani of Aryaka, Sunil Varanasi at Meter, and Pankaj Patel and Shashi Kiran at Nile.

SoftBank Conducts 5G-Advanced Field Trials in Tokyo
SoftBank partnered with Ericsson and Qualcomm to trial 5G-Advanced features on its commercial 5G SA network, focusing on L4S (Low Latency, Low Loss, and Scalable Throughput) technology. Ericsson reported approximately 90% reduction in wireless link latency compared to standard 5G environments. Industry experts anticipate 2026 will see broader global adoption of 5G-Advanced capabilities.

Analysts Predict 6G Will Remain Vaporware Through 2026–2027
Disruptive Analysis founder Dean Bubley and Ookla analyst Mike Dano told Fierce Network that 6G remains years from reality, with initial standards not expected until 2025 and first commercial rollout not until 2030. Bubley characterized 2026 as a year of “AI-generated slop” filled with standards submissions promising “multigigabit” speeds and “sub-millisecond” latency. The Trump administration has moved to reallocate the 7.125–7.4 GHz band for 6G use, though Bubley questions whether massive new spectrum allocations are necessary.

6G Technical Foundation to Solidify in 2026
NTIA plans to host live 6G demonstrations at the 2028 Los Angeles Summer Olympics, while 3GPP standardization work aligns with the UN’s IMT-2030 framework. The deadline for 3GPP to finalize the Release 21 timeline (first 6G specifications) is June 2026, with full-scale specification work on physical layer and core network architecture expected from 2027–2029. Industry leaders including Ericsson, Nokia, and Huawei view 6G as an evolution of 5G Advanced rather than a radical revolution.

5G

Ericsson CEO Promotes “Physical AI” Vision Amid Market Stagnation
Ericsson CEO Börje Ekholm outlined a “hyperconnectivity” vision supporting humanoid robots, XR glasses, and real-time translation, positioning 5G/6G networks as essential infrastructure for “Physical AI.” However, total RAN market spending shrank 20% between 2022 and 2024, falling to $35 billion. To meet 15%-18% operating margin targets, Ericsson shed nearly 17,000 roles since 2022, with R&D spending declining 9% to $5.4 billion.

Nokia Chair Sari Baldauf to Step Down After Six-Year Tenure
Sari Baldauf will conclude her chairmanship in April, succeeded by deputy chair Timo Ihamuotila, while Nokia reported Q4 2025 revenue of $7.24 billion (up 2%) with net profit of $647.36 million. The Network Infrastructure division generated $2.86 billion, driven by Optical Networks orders from AI and cloud customers. CEO Justin Hotard’s strategy ties Nokia’s future to the “AI super cycle” to offset softening Mobile Networks revenues.

Verizon Projects Tripled Subscriber Growth in 2026
Verizon expects to add 750,000 to one million postpaid phone users in 2026, effectively tripling 2025 growth, after Q4 2025 additions of 616,000 exceeded analyst expectations of 417,000–420,000. Q4 operating revenue increased 2% to $36.4 billion with wireless equipment sales up 9.1%, though net income declined 53.2% to $2.3 billion. Fixed wireless access reached 5.7 million subscribers after adding 319,000 in Q4.

AT&T Reports Strong Q4 as Convergence Strategy Gains Traction
AT&T’s converged 5G-fiber strategy shows postpaid subscriber share 10% higher in fiber-deployed regions, with Q4 adding 421,000 postpaid subscribers—the fifth consecutive year exceeding 1.5 million annual additions. Revenue increased 3.6% YoY to $33.5 billion, while net income dipped to $3.75 billion from $4.03 billion due to rising operating expenses. The carrier plans to participate in upcoming spectrum auctions while continuing 3.45 GHz deployment.

Dell’Oro Raises 5G Mobile Core Forecast to 12% CAGR
Dell’Oro Group revised its 5G Mobile Core Network market forecast to 12% CAGR (2025–2030) as 5G SA reaches an inflection point, while the MEC market forecast increased to 22% CAGR driven by low-latency AI applications. Growth drivers include IMS core modernization to cloud-native architecture, 3G network retirements, and 5G VoNR with interactive calling features. The 4G MCN market will decline but remain significant in Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia, Caribbean, and Latin America.

Ericsson Launches Location-Based Services for 5G SA Networks
Ericsson’s new location-based services suite for 5G SA networks embeds positioning directly into network architecture, eliminating external application dependencies. Key advantages include sub-meter indoor precision, improved battery life for connected devices, and scalability for agriculture and automotive sectors. The services enable operators to monetize high-precision location data across vertical markets.

3 Sweden Becomes First Swedish Operator to Launch 5G SA
3 Sweden deployed Sweden’s first 5G standalone network using Ericsson cloud-native 5G core and RAN infrastructure. The SA network enables network slicing for tailored business connectivity and FWA applications. CTIO Rajib Eklund cited escalating user data demands as the driver, with expected environmental and cost benefits from the transition.

Private Wireless

Bouygues Telecom Deploys 5G Private Network at Bordeaux University Hospital
Bouygues Telecoms Business, with EU funding and Ericsson collaboration, will deploy standalone 5G with network slicing and edge computing across 18 hospital buildings beginning late 2026. The 2027 rollout will encompass a dozen use cases from emergency response to surgical procedures. The project serves as a blueprint for France’s national healthcare system infrastructure.

Ericsson Claims Hundreds of Private 5G Enterprise Customers
Ericsson reports approximately 95% of its private 5G enterprise clients use more than basic connectivity, with deployments spanning multiple countries through its dedicated Enterprise Wireless business unit. SNS Telecom & IT predicts private network spending will exceed $7.2 billion by end of 2028. As Nokia shifts to larger contracts, analysts see opportunities for Ericsson and Samsung in mid-market and smaller enterprise sectors.

Nokia Pivots Private Wireless Strategy Toward Large-Scale Deployments
Nokia is moving its Enterprise Campus Edge unit into a portfolio business for sale within a year, exiting single-campus deployments typically under one million dollars in revenue. The company will focus on mission-critical infrastructure requiring robust RAN and core networks supporting millions of endpoints. Analysts including AvidThink’s Roy Chua expect competitors like Ericsson, Samsung, and startups to capitalize on the vacated campus segment.

AI

Bell Canada Builds “Digital Spine” for Sovereign AI Infrastructure
Bell Canada’s AI Fabric strategy aims to double enterprise AI-powered solutions revenue by 2028 through a coast-to-coast mesh of clean-powered data centers. Ateko, a Bell-spun startup specializing in AI automation platforms (ServiceNow, AWS), already generates approximately $700 million in revenue. The initiative aligns with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s emphasis on “middle powers” maintaining data and operational independence.

Agentic AI Introduces New Security Challenges
Unlike traditional generative AI requiring user prompts, agentic AI acts autonomously, connecting to multiple models and agents without direct human intervention. F5 VP of Engineering Jimmy White warns this independence creates narrow error margins. McKinsey reports 80% of organizations have encountered risky AI agent behaviors including unauthorized system access and improper data exposure.

Arista CEO: Ethernet Will Dominate AI Networking
Arista Networks CEO Jayshree Ullal told Fierce Network that Ethernet will be the “eventual winner and equalizer” in AI networking. AI demands are shifting data center network requirements from training to inference workloads with increased reliance on telemetry and agentic AI. Ullal predicts continued Ethernet momentum as AI networking requirements evolve.

Singtel Consolidates AI Efforts Under Unified AIDA Unit
Singtel consolidated fragmented AI initiatives into AI and Data Analytics (AIDA) in mid-2025, headed by Kevin Yee, creating a “central AI kitchen” platform with shared infrastructure, safety guardrails, and reusable AI agents. Six months post-launch, AIDA has finalized organizational structure and is merging capabilities from subsidiaries NCS and RE:AI. The approach eliminates departmental silos while ensuring secure, scalable AI deployment.

Microsoft Pledges to Cover AI Data Center Electricity Costs
Microsoft’s Community-First AI Infrastructure initiative commits to paying higher utility rates for data center electricity, addressing concerns that industrial-scale AI power demands could increase household bills. The pledge follows discussions with the Trump administration ensuring consumers won’t “pick up the tab” for AI infrastructure expansion. Microsoft will advocate for policies prioritizing affordable, reliable, and sustainable power.

Nvidia Introduces Alpamayo Open-Source “Reasoning” AI for Autonomous Vehicles
At CES 2026, CEO Jensen Huang unveiled Alpamayo, a family of open-source AI models using chain-of-thought architecture for autonomous vehicle reasoning. The system processes raw camera data directly into physical maneuvers while deliberating through complex scenarios like malfunctioning traffic lights without prior specific experience. Nvidia positions it as the world’s first “thinking” AI for transportation.

SD-WAN

Vodafone Business and Maroc Telecom Partner on Digital Transformation
The partnership will initially focus on smart city and energy management, providing mobile private networks, SD-WAN, cloud solutions, and cybersecurity services to local and multinational enterprises. Target industries include manufacturing, logistics, retail, and public sector, supporting Morocco’s digital ambitions. The agreement extends Vodafone’s 2023 strategic partnership with the e& group focused on global enterprise markets.

Open RAN

Airspan Targets Opportunities from Mavenir and NEC Market Exits
CEO Glenn Laxdal reports Airspan secured a deal with Japan’s Rakuten for midband radio units covering approximately 5,000 mobile sites following NEC’s withdrawal. After 2023 revenue decline and Chapter 11 restructuring, Airspan received an $85 million equity infusion from Fortress Investment Group. The company targets specialized opportunities too small for Tier 1 vendors but vital for operators like Rakuten.

Ericsson Announces Additional Workforce Reductions
CEO Börje Ekholm announced further job cuts following 5,000 positions shed in the past year, including 1,600 in Sweden, citing stagnant RAN market conditions. Despite 5% revenue decline, net income reached $910 million with 6% organic Q4 growth. Ericsson is pivoting toward 5G core, enterprise campus deployments, mission-critical private networks, and defense sector opportunities.

NEC Exits 4G/5G Network Equipment Market
NEC reclassified its base station business as “non-core” and reorganized its Open RAN unit, representing another significant blow to the Open RAN movement. In 2024, Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia collectively held over 77% of RAN market share, increasing from the previous year, while NEC held less than 1%. The exit follows struggles by other Open RAN players including Mavenir and EchoStar.

Cloud

AWS Achieves Near-Autonomous Network Operations
According to VP of Core Networking Matt Rehder, AWS automated systems now manage 97%-98% of all network events on one of the world’s largest fiber networks. Humans remain essential only for high-level architectural decisions and physical hardware repair. AWS’s vertically integrated ecosystem—developing proprietary networking devices and software—enabled it to avoid multi-vendor complexity.

Edge

Telefónica Deploys Seven Additional Edge Computing Nodes in Spain
Telefónica will activate seven new edge computing nodes in Spain next year, complementing ten existing nodes in Madrid, Barcelona, and Bilbao. The expansion addresses demand for AI capabilities, advanced computing power, and localized data processing with data sovereignty considerations. The decentralized architecture enables real-time analytics while maintaining enterprise security standards.

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