AvidThink 2025 December Recap

Happy New Year to you! May 2026 bring you all the success that you’re hoping for.

The AvidThink team took a short break at the end of December, but we’re back in action with our Predictions 2026 series rolling out starting this week, as well as highlights from the Marvell Industry Analyst Day 2025 held mid-December. Check out our featured showcase at https://nextgeninfra.io/ and see the latest predictions from leading execs from Astera Labs, Credo, DriveNets, Graphiant, Intel, Marvell, Spirent, Viavi, Zayo, and with more coming.

Here's what's in store for this month's newsletter:

Keep your eye on NextGenInfra.io for upcoming showcases — Enterprise Connectivity will be soft-released this week!

Post-AWS:reInvent, I was glad to have just two local December events: Marvell Industry Analyst Day, and startup Aira Technologies’ 3rd annual Aira Activate event. More importantly, some downtime to recover from all that Fall travel. It also gave us time to finish out our Enterprise Connectivity report, which we’ll be pushing live soon (it’s all staged and ready to go).

2025 was definitely another year of AI, but I wouldn’t call it the Year of Agentic AI. Nevertheless, I expect more Agentic use cases in 2026 with some dramatically successful outcomes that will blow us all away. It’s definitely on a different trajectory than past technology trends like IoT or IPv6. Remember the recurring “Year of IoT” and “Year of IPv6”? BTW, Tom Nadeau (Wind River, OCP, ex-Red Hat) reminded me recently that it’s the 30-year anniversary of IPv6. In any case, back to more relevant takes on recent events:

Marvell IA Day 2025: Marvell painted a striking picture of the AI infrastructure boom, noting semiconductor data center spending will grow from $540B in 2023 to $1T by 2028—compressing what was previously a 13-year timeline into just five. The company detailed how 200G+ signaling is hitting physics limits (DAC cables dropping from 4-meter to 1-meter reach), driving architectural shifts toward co-packaged copper and optical solutions at every layer. Most interesting was the reveal around the $3.25B Celestial AI acquisition (David Lazovsky, Celestial’s CEO, made a surprise appearance): Celestial’s photonic fabric technology delivers 100s Tbps per package with sub-150ns latency at copper-equivalent costs (5-8 cents/Gbps), with a major hyperscaler already committed to quarterly volumes in the hundreds of thousands of units. Power emerged as the new limiting factor—AI data centers could grow from 4-5% to 8-12% of US electricity consumption—pushing Marvell's PIVR (Package-integrated voltage regulation) solutions to market and their roadmap to 4,000W XPUs by 2027. Development cycles have compressed from stable 4-year cadences to 18-month sprints, with hyperscalers simultaneously developing 800G while planning 1.6T and 3.2T implementations. Marvell was intent on demonstrating the strength of their connectivity IP across the portfolio. You can check out some of their key value propositions directly on our Marvell Industry Analyst 2025 showcase on nextgeninfra.io (the top-featured newsletter image shows Jim Carroll in their studio, directing video capture).

Aira Activate 2025: Aira held its third annual private event at the McKinsey offices in Redwood City (courtesy of Fan Gao, a partner at McKinsey). The event featured a cast of well-known experts in networking and telco, and Anand Chandrasekher (CEO, Aira) brought in guest speakers who provided a different perspective on AI and autonomous systems (not just LLMs, transformer models, and more GPUs). We kicked off with Subutai Ahmad (CTO) of Numenta, originally founded by Jeff Hawkins and Donna Dubinsky (Palm/Handspring). Numenta takes a neuromorphic approach that better captures the brain's sparsity and efficiency. You can read the Thousand Brains book by Jeff Hawkins for more details.

Other presenters included: Dr. Shreekant Thakkar (TII UAE), Gabriele Di Piazza (Blue Planet), Sinan Akkaya (AT&T), Dr. Anastassia Lauterbach (AI Edutainment), Cristina Rodriguez (Intel), Amir Rao (AWS), Assaf Landau (RADCOM), Sreedhar Rao (Snowflake), Srinivas Bhattiprolu (Nokia), Bob Everson (Cisco), Manish Singh (Dell), Chetan Sharma (telco analyst and consultant extraordinaire), and Anton Lysenko and Kaavini Thakar (both of McKinsey). Also good to see fellow analyst Stéphane Téral at the event.

Capping off the event was Bran Ferren of Applied Minds - a company he founded with Danny Hillis of Thinking Machines Corp. Bran was previously President of R&D at Walt Disney Imagineering. His insights, experience, and thoughts on innovation and organizational structure were outstanding (you can find Stéphane’s post on LinkedIn for a short summary of the takeaways).

Next up for us is preparing for MWC Barcelona 2026, launching our Enterprise Connectivity and Data Center Networking reports, along with a series of other client-commissioned work. BTW, reach out to [email protected] if you want to schedule a meeting at MWC — spots are starting to fill.

– Roy for the AvidThink Team

Check out our most recent articles, including two from our “Unlocking the Programmable Network” series on the state of and opportunity with telco APIs. We also recently posted an article on Enea AB’s blog about the rise of Shadow AI and the role of DPI in detecting and controlling access to AI services.

We have for your viewing pleasure Marvell Industry Analyst 2025 Showcase as well as the long-awaited Predictions 2026 series. Head over the NextGenInfra.io to check both of them out.

6G May Evolve Without Forcing a New Hardware Cycle
Industry groups such as the Next-Gen Mobile Networks Alliance (NGMN) argue that 6G should not require a full 5G RAN hardware refresh, signaling a break from the traditional 10-year “G” upgrade cycle. Early 6G workshops indicate continued use of OFDM waveforms, enabling coexistence with 4G/5G and reinforcing vendor views—echoed by Ericsson—that 6G is an evolution of 5G rather than a clean-slate generation. This shift could pressure radio vendor revenues as value moves further toward software.

6G-XR Consortium Showcases Holographic and XR Services on 5G/6G
Members of the 6G-XR consortium, including Capgemini, Ericsson, i2CAT, and Vicomtech, demonstrated holographic communications using Ericsson 5G standalone infrastructure with edge computing in Spain. Tests highlighted proactive congestion detection and intelligent traffic prioritization to maintain service quality during high load. The results suggest immersive XR services are feasible on evolving 5G and future 6G networks.

5G FWA Growth Faces Looming Capacity Constraints
U.S. operators T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T ended Q3 with a combined 14.65 million FWA subscribers, but analysts warn of capacity limits as home broadband traffic strains cellular networks. New Street Research estimates total U.S. FWA capacity at roughly 32 million subscribers, with about 55% already utilized. Even with upcoming upper C-band spectrum adding headroom for ₄ million users, long-term scalability remains a concern.

Verizon Launches Enterprise FWA Using 5G Network Slicing
Verizon introduced a premium enterprise FWA tier based on 5G network slicing, offering SLAs, prioritized traffic, and higher uplink performance. The service delivers up to 200 Mbps downlink and 45 Mbps uplink, targeting organizations with 500+ employees. In Q3 2025, Verizon added 140,000 FWA business customers, surpassing residential additions.

Germany Becomes a Hotspot for 5G Standalone and Network Slicing
Deutsche Telekom claims 99% 5G SA coverage in Germany, while Vodafone reports 90%, positioning the country as a leader in advanced 5G deployment. DT is pushing consumer-facing network slicing, notably for cloud gaming, which analysts say could drive ARPU gains. Telefonica O2 reports broad 5G coverage but has disclosed fewer details on SA capabilities.

Verizon and Kodiak AI Partner on 5G-Enabled Autonomous Trucking
Verizon Business teamed with Kodiak AI to support autonomous trucking using 5G, LTE, and the ThingSpace IoT platform. The partnership focuses on reliable, low-latency data flows between driverless trucks and centralized command centers. Kodiak’s AI-powered “virtual driver” relies on continuous connectivity for long-haul and mission-critical operations.

NTT Docomo and Ericsson Deploy Massive MIMO to Boost Urban 5G Capacity
NTT Docomo began deploying Ericsson AIR 3255 Massive MIMO radios in the 4.5 GHz band to enhance capacity in dense urban areas. The radios interoperate with existing 3.7 GHz Massive MIMO infrastructure, improving flexibility and throughput. Ericsson says the multi-band approach supports faster speeds and more resilient coverage.

T-Mobile Appoints Jon Freier as Chief Operating Officer
T-Mobile promoted Jon Freier to COO as part of a broader leadership realignment under new CEO Srini Gopalan. Freier previously led the consumer group and has a long history in the U.S. wireless market. The company also elevated Mike Katz to chief business and product officer.

Rogers Expands 5G Coverage Across Eastern Ontario
Rogers Communications activated 34 new 5G-focused towers and upgraded hundreds of sites across eastern Ontario. The effort is part of the $217 million EORN Cell Gap Project aimed at eliminating rural coverage gaps. In total, the project includes 332 towers and 311 site upgrades supporting 5G.

Bell Canada Deploys 3800 MHz Mid-Band 5G in Ontario
Bell rolled out 5G using 3800 MHz mid-band spectrum in southern Ontario, delivering a reported 65% increase in data rates. Peak downlink speeds now reach up to 3.6 Gbps, laying groundwork for 5G-Advanced. The spectrum was acquired in a 2023 auction and validated through earlier pilots.

Omdia: 5G RedCap Will Drive Long-Term IoT Growth
Omdia forecasts cellular IoT connections reaching 5.9 billion by 2035, driven largely by 5G Reduced Capability (RedCap). RedCap targets mid-tier devices requiring reliable connectivity without full 5G bandwidth. Growth is expected to accelerate in 2026 with enhanced RedCap (eRedCap) modules.

China’s 5G Patent Dominance Has Yet to Deliver Strong Returns
Wu Hequan of the Chinese Academy of Engineering said Chinese firms hold roughly 40% of global 5G standard-essential patents but have generated limited economic value. He noted that higher-value RAN patents account for about 70% of total 5G patent-chain value. Analysts attribute the gap to overproduction of low-value IP driven by quota-based incentives.

Open RAN Struggles After a Difficult 2025
The Open RAN ecosystem faced setbacks in 2025, including Mavenir’s exit from radio hardware and EchoStar’s withdrawal from its greenfield deployment. VodafoneThree in the UK also abandoned plans to replace Huawei gear with Open RAN, opting instead for Ericsson and Nokia. These moves highlight ongoing concerns about financial stability and operational risk.

Open RAN Poised for Commercial Momentum in 2026
Despite 2025 turbulence, industry leaders say Open RAN is transitioning into a scalable, mainstream option. Airspan cited expanding deployments with Rakuten Mobile and growing Tier-1 interest globally. Discussions at Telecom Infra Project’s FYUZ 2025 event shifted from feasibility debates to scaling, deployment execution, and AI-driven innovation.

KT and Samsung Trial AI-Driven RAN Optimization
KT and Samsung tested AI-RAN technology on a live commercial network involving 18,000 users. The system dynamically optimized configurations per user by analyzing real-time interference and signal conditions. Results showed a meaningful reduction in connection failures among previously affected users.

Mavenir Restructures Leadership and Sharpens Strategic Focus
Mavenir reorganized into two core business segments as it pivots away from radio hardware toward cloud-native and AI-driven platforms. The company announced multiple executive appointments while several veteran leaders transition to advisory roles. CEO Pardeep Kohli said the changes position Mavenir for focused innovation and customer value.

Rakuten Mobile Selects Airspan for Open RAN Radios in Japan
Rakuten Mobile chose Airspan to deploy Open RAN-compliant radio units across its Japanese network. The project is the first commercial Open RAN deployment backed by U.S. NTIA grants. Rakuten operates a heterogeneous network with more than 345,000 cell sites.

2025 Marks a Turning Point for Private 5G
Private 5G adoption accelerated in 2025, with approximately 1,300 new deployments, up from 900 in 2024, according to SNS Telecom & IT. The sector faces uncertainty from proposed CBRS spectrum reallocation, supported by the U.S. Department of Defense but opposed by enterprises and startups. Nokia also signaled a strategic shift, potentially divesting its enterprise campus business to focus on mission-critical networks.

Analysts Forecast $7.2B Private Network Market by 2028
SNS Telecom & IT projects the private networking market will reach $7.2 billion by 2028, with 5G overtaking LTE. The firm estimates 70% of future investment will go toward standalone 5G private networks. Manufacturers such as Tesla, LG Electronics, and Hyundai are already using private 5G to optimize operations.

Free Selects Nokia Network-as-a-Code for API Monetization
French operator Free joined Nokia’s Network-as-a-Code platform to expose advanced network capabilities via standardized APIs. The platform now supports over 60 companies and targets sectors including healthcare, banking, and automotive. The deal reflects growing industry focus on network API monetization, alongside Ericsson’s Aduna initiative.

HCLTech Acquires HPE Telco Solutions Business for $160M
HCLTech is buying HPE’s Telco Solutions unit for $160 million, adding roughly 1,500 employees. The acquisition strengthens HCLTech’s AI-driven and IP-led telecom services as CSPs evolve into “techcos.” Telecom remains a core growth vertical amid competition from Accenture, IBM, and TCS.

Oracle’s AI Demand Drives Record Backlog but Negative Cash Flow
Oracle reported 14% revenue growth and 66% OCI growth, but free cash flow fell to negative $13.18 billion due to surging capex. Trailing 12-month capex reached $35.48 billion as Oracle builds AI-ready data centers. Meanwhile, its order backlog climbed to $523.3 billion, signaling strong long-term demand.

Microsoft Commits $17.5B to Expand AI and Cloud in India
Microsoft plans to invest $17.5 billion in India between 2026 and 2029 to scale cloud and AI infrastructure. The move follows a prior $3 billion commitment and aligns with India’s national AI roadmap. The investment aims to position India as a global AI leader.

Palo Alto Networks and Google Cloud Form $10B AI Security Partnership
Palo Alto Networks will migrate key workloads to Google Cloud and integrate Vertex AI and Gemini models into its security platforms. The partnership, valued at roughly $10 billion, enhances AI-driven security capabilities for enterprises. Palo Alto reports 99% of organizations experienced at least one AI-related attack in the past year.

SoftBank Group Acquires Digital Infrastructure Investor DigitalBridge
SoftBank Group is set to acquire digital infrastructure investor DigitalBridge Group in a deal valued at $4bn (15% premium over closing price on Dec 26). This is part of SoftBank’s ongoing expansion to grab a piece of all things AI infrastructure-related — OpenAI and the Stargate project, Intel, and of course their majority ownership of Arm.

Red Hat Acquires Chatterbox Labs to Embed AI Safety
Red Hat acquired AI safety firm Chatterbox Labs to integrate guardrails and trust mechanisms into its hybrid cloud AI stack. The move supports Red Hat and IBM’s strategy of “security-first” enterprise AI. Customers gain built-in safety features rather than add-on controls.

Cisco Joins Linux Foundation–Hosted Agentic AI Foundation
Cisco became a Gold member of the Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF), which promotes open standards for AI agents. A key focus is the Model Context Protocol (MCP), originally open-sourced by Anthropic in 2024. Cisco says open collaboration is critical for scalable, interoperable AI.

Arista Targets Campus Growth with Agentic AI and New WLAN Architecture
Arista unveiled campus-focused innovations including a new wireless architecture, the AVA agentic AI assistant, and ruggedized switches for industrial environments. Central to the strategy is VESPA, a software enhancement to EOS designed to remove controller bottlenecks and scale beyond 500,000 clients. Early adopters such as Arizona State University are validating the approach as Arista positions campus networking and AI as major future growth markets.

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