AvidThink November 2024 Analyst Update

AvidThink's November 2024 News Update

December 02, 2024

AvidThink 2024 November Update

Happy belated Thanksgiving to our friends in the US! Since our December newsletter won’t go out until after the new year, we’ll send our holiday greetings to you in advance: Merry Christmas, Hanukkah Sameach, and Happy Holidays to all! We’ll hold our New Year’s greetings for our December update.

The year is finally winding down, and Roy has one last conference to attend — he’s out at AWS re:Invent in Las Vegas this week. The latest report on our site is Carrier NaaS (network-as-a-service) and the Middle Mile — download it today if you haven’t yet! Also, check out our newest resource site that launched last week: SD-WAN and SASE Summit 2024 in Paris — videos featuring speakers from Aryaka, Check Point, Cisco, Colt, DT, EANTC, Ekinops, Ericsson, flexiWAN, HPE Aruba, Keysight, Lanner, Opengear, Orange, and Versa!

We are currently working on reports on SASE, SD-WAN, and DC Networking for AI and Cloud workloads. If you’re interested, contact us at [email protected].

Check out the rest of our newsletter for updates from the AvidThink team:

  • Roy’s Travelogue — Aira Activate, SD-WAN and SASE Summit, AutoCon 2

  • Latest Reports — Carrier NaaS/Middle Mile, AI in Networking, Campus NaaS

  • Recent Articles— AI Engineering (The New Stack), NaaS Evolution (MEF Blog)

  • NextGenInfra — SD-WAN and SASE Summit in Paris

  • October News Roundup —

  • Other Content — AvidThink in the News, Webinars, Meet Us Live!

Roy’s Travelogue

November saw me first at Aira Activate 2024 (their 2nd event) at McKinsey’s offices in Redwood City, digging into all things RAN and AI, followed by SD-WAN and SASE Summit in Paris (unfortunately couldn’t make it to FYUZ 2024), and then the sold-out AutoCon 2 (Network Automation Forum) in Denver — congrats to the organizers! Let’s kick this section off with a quick photo gallery.

Clockwise from top left: Franck Morales of Orange at Upperside Conference’s SD-WAN and SASE Summit in Paris, a surprise meet-up with Ed Karam of Cisco (Accedian) at AutoCon 2 in Denver, organizers Chris Grundemann and Scott Robohn kicking off AutoCon, presenting at SD-WAN and SASE (photo credit: Carsten Rossenhoevel), and Gabriele Di Piazza at Aira Activate 2024.

And for fellow analysts constantly on the road and trying to get work done, you’ll empathize seeing me at various locations in Paris desperately trying to make progress on our research reports. In the background, you may spot the musée de Louvre, Notre Dame Cathedral, Centre Pompidou, Shakespeare & Company, and more. It’s hard to stay focused in Paris with so many sights — even if you’ve already seen them. In any case, it’s impossible to say no to a conference in Paris!

And I’m almost there—the finish line is in sight. It’s down to one last public conference for me in 2024 - AWS re:Invent 2024 in Las Vegas. There are still private meetings and events after, but no more travel!

This will be Matt Garman’s first re:Invent as CEO, and I look forward to hearing about AWS’s updated positioning across its services, from GenAI/AI to new infrastructure services to AWS’s latest telco efforts. We got an “NDA-only” sneak peek during their GenAI Analyst Summit in Seattle in early October, so I’m eagerly expecting some public announcements of those initiatives. More to come…

After that, it will be a blissful couple of weeks without travel—we’ll be at Chiplet Summit, but that’s local. The first international trip we’re gearing up for is MWC Barcelona 2025! Speaking of which, NextGenInfra (our collaboration with Jim Carroll) is starting to take reservations for our MWC 2025 Showcase—drop [email protected] a line if interested.

— Roy for the AvidThink Team

Latest Reports at NextGenInfra

NextGenInfra is our collaboration with media partner, Converge Digest

Subscribe to our videos at @NextGenInfra YouTube Channel

Some of you have not yet grabbed your copy of our Carrier NaaS Report (there’s a copy on the server with your name on it 😄)!  You’re missing some key interviews with thought leaders in the space from Blue Planet (a division of Ciena), Graphiant, and DriveNets!

Don’t you want to know how AI and GenAI are impacting carrier networks? And why are enterprises interested in network-as-a-service from the carriers? Well, you know where to go to get those answers. Download free Carrier NaaS Report today!

Recent Articles

(posted on The New Stack)

In a joint article with Fatih E. N., Babar Bhatti, and Henrik Hedlund, Roy and team explain the new role of an AI Engineer and the skills required.

2024 November News Roundup

6G

3GPP Begins Official 6G Standardization with Release 213GPP is initiating 6G standardization through Release 21, targeting 6G RAN specifications by 2029. The standards body aims to avoid 5G’s challenges, particularly the two-step NSA/SA deployment process and geographic fragmentation of standards. Meanwhile, Release 19 completion is expected next year, with focus on creating a unified global standard.

China’s MIIT Advocates for Global 6G Standard DevelopmentChina’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) Vice Minister Zhang Yunming announced China’s commitment to developing a unified global 6G standard at a Shanghai conference. The initiative is prioritized by Communist Party leadership, with China seeking collaboration with EU, Korea, and Japan while maintaining an open development approach.

Industry Expert Proposes Dedicated 6G Private Network StandardUniversity of Notre Dame Professor Monisha Ghosh suggests developing a separate 3GPP 6G specification for private networks. The proposal stems from private networks' unique characteristics as independent radio networks with dedicated cores and increased spectrum sharing requirements.

Nokia and NTT Docomo Advance AI-Native Air Interface TestingNTT Docomo and Nokia have successfully demonstrated their 6G AI-AI (AI-native Air Interface) in an indoor setting using physical antennas and GPU-based machine learning. The system employs AI for signal processing tasks including channel estimation and equalization, achieving higher transmission efficiency by eliminating traditional reference signals.

5G

FCC Establishes Guidelines for 5G C-V2X CommunicationsThe FCC has released rules governing 5G-based vehicle communications, allocating 30 MHz of spectrum between 5.89 GHz and 5.925 GHz for C-V2X technology. The guidelines aim to facilitate safer roadways through advanced automobile safety technology, though specific 3GPP standard release recommendations were not included.

Neutral Host Networks Could Reduce Urban 5G Deployment Costs by 47%ABI Research’s study with Boldyn Networks reveals potential 47% cost reduction and 38% energy savings through neutral host network sharing for urban 5G deployments. Analysis covered five areas across New York and Rome, with savings attributed to equipment consolidation and shared infrastructure costs.

Hong Kong’s 5G Spectrum Auction Generates $288 MillionHong Kong successfully auctioned 110 MHz of spectrum for 4G/5G services, raising $288 million. China Mobile secured 50 MHz of 2.3 GHz spectrum for $137 million, while Hutchison Telecom, HKT, and SmarTone acquired various spectrum blocks in 850 MHz and 2.3 GHz bands.

Millimeter Wave Spectrum Faces Significant Value DeclineUScellular has halved its mmWave spectrum valuation to $161 million, marking a significant decline in mmWave’s perceived value. T-Mobile recently surrendered 520 mmWave licenses due to FCC coverage requirement challenges, contrasting with the $10 billion spent by major carriers in previous auctions.

Virgin Media O2 Launches UK’s First 5G SA Small CellsVirgin Media O2 has deployed 5G standalone small cells in Birmingham through partnerships with Ontix and AlphaWireless. Early data shows improved network performance in high-traffic areas, addressing a 26% increase in data consumption from the previous year.

Analysts Project FWA Market Growth SlowdownNew Street Research forecasts T-Mobile to add 1.45 million FWA customers, Verizon 1.3 million, and AT&T 550,000 in 2025. Analysts expect customer additions to decline from 2026 onward, suggesting the FWA market is reaching maturity.

Ericsson Shifts Focus to Software Revenue StreamEricsson CEO Börje Ekholm announced increased focus on software revenue streams despite traditional hardware focus. Q3 mobile networks sales dropped 4% year-over-year, while gross margin increased 9.4 percentage points to 48.3%, indicating successful transition.

Nvidia and SoftBank Demonstrate AI-RAN Monetization PotentialNvidia and SoftBank’s outdoor pilot showed AI workloads can utilize excess network capacity in 5G RAN. Companies estimate operators can earn $5 in AI inference revenue per $1 of AI-RAN infrastructure investment, potentially yielding 219% returns per server.

Open RAN

Saudi Aramco Considers $1B Investment in MavenirSaudi Aramco is reportedly planning a $1 billion investment in Mavenir for a minority stake, valuing the company at $3 billion. The investment could provide crucial support for Mavenir, which faces potential loan default according to S&P Global.

Verizon Implements Multi-Vendor Open RAN in AustinVerizon has successfully deployed its first multi-vendor open RAN system in Austin, connecting Samsung and CommScope equipment. Dell’Oro Group projects multi-vendor open RAN will represent only 5–10% of total RAN revenues by 2028.

AI

Dev/Agents Secures $56M for Universal AI Operating SystemFormer Google executives launched dev/agents with $56 million in seed funding led by Index Ventures and CapitalG. The company aims to develop a universal operating system for AI agents, led by former Google VP David Singleton as CEO.

Major Tech Companies Advance Agentic AI DevelopmentGoogle Cloud is testing Looker, a conversational data analytics agent integrated with workplace tools. OpenAI plans to launch its own AI agent, while Tableau has rebranded its AI assistant as an agent, marking a shift toward proactive AI capabilities.

Open Source GenAI Shows Promise Despite ChallengesGitHub reports open source GenAI can improve model accuracy by 5–10% in specific applications. While offering cost benefits and customization opportunities, these models require self-managed security updates and standard compliance, presenting potential security risks.

Cloud Providers See Strong Q3 Growth Driven by AIAWS achieved 19.1% growth and $110 billion annualized run rate, while Google Cloud saw 35% growth and $2 billion operating income in Q3. Smaller providers including Oracle, Huawei, Snowflake, and Cloudflare also reported increased growth rates.

Cloud

Cisco Reports Growth in Telecom BusinessCisco announced low-single-digit growth in its telecom business for fiscal Q1 2025, marking a turnaround from previous declines. Morgan Stanley analysts interpret the results as indicating improved networking spending, though cable revenue continues to decline.

API

Nokia Acquires RapidAPI to Expand Developer ReachNokia’s acquisition of RapidAPI, valued at $1 billion in 2022, aims to enhance its developer ecosystem access. RapidAPI’s marketplace platform complements Nokia’s Network as Code platform, despite recent company restructuring and staff reductions.

Private Wireless

Singtel Implements 5G Network Slice for Tuas Port OperationsSingtel deploys triple-band 5G network slice for Tuas Port automation, supporting AGVs and remote-controlled cranes. By 2040, the port plans to operate over 1,000 battery-powered driverless vehicles and automated yard cranes on the network.

Del Conca USA Implements Celona CBRS Private NetworkDel Conca’s American facility utilizes Celona’s 4G CBRS private network for AGV operations and forklift management. SNS Telecom & IT projects 15% CBRS spectrum usage growth through 2027, driven by private network expansion.

Analysts Predict Private 5G Network Mainstream AdoptionAvidThink analyst (You Know Who) predicts private 5G networks will finally go mainstream in 2025 across major markets. Cisco’s partnership with NEC for 5G private networks indicates growing momentum, focusing initially on Middle East and European markets.

Private 5G Networks Projected to Grow at 63% CAGRABI Research predicts private 5G network market value reaching $19.4 billion by 2029, growing at 63% CAGR compared to DAS’s 21%. The shift indicates changing enterprise approaches to indoor connectivity, particularly in specialized applications.

SD-WAN

BT Enhances SD-WAN with Fortinet SSE IntegrationBT adds Fortinet’s AI-powered SSE capabilities to its managed SD-WAN service, enabling SASE transition. New features include firewall-as-a-service, secure web gateway, cloud access security, and zero-trust network access.

Starlink Partners with MetTel for Enterprise SD-WAN ServicesSpaceX designates MetTel as first authorized partner for Starlink-based SD-WAN services. The offering combines terrestrial services with satellite links supporting 2–12 Starlink antennas, utilizing VMware’s SD-WAN service and managed services software.

AvidThink in the News

Upcoming and On-Demand Webinars

Towards an Open Hardware and Software Stack for OpenRAN (on-demand)Roy moderates an OCP Global Summit panel on the role that open architecture and software play in OpenRAN. Panelists include Stelyana Baleva (Téral Research), James Clardy (SecureG), Mo Jabbari (Arm), Jordan Vrtanoski (Connect 5G).

Turk Telekom and Netsia held a webinar on SDN-powered broadband networks (featuring the ONF/LF SEBA open-source stack). Roy helped provide context for the SDN journey for broadband networks.

Meet Us at Upcoming Events

AWS re:Invent

2-5 December

Las Vegas, Nevada

Chiplet Summit 2025

21-23 January

Santa Clara, California

MWC Barcelona 2025

3-6 March

Barcelona, Spain

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