Barcelona isn’t just about the latest foldable phones anymore; it’s about the "Infinite AI" and "IQ Era." The new cognitive layer will span both non-terrestrial & terrestrial networks. There are also parallels in their impact on ecosystems: as AI created an inflection point for SaaS tools, non-terrestrial networks are also creating an inflection point for the telcos and satellite providers.

For me, the Non-terrestrial Networks (NTN) journey in the Telco space began in 2020, when, in my role at a major Tier-1 European Telco, I began exploring Satellite IoT. At the time, it seemed like a modest "near-future" opportunity; a simple way to track assets in the middle of the ocean or the desert. The momentum shifted in July 2021 when SpaceX acquired Swarm Technologies for $524 million. What initially looked like a small deal for "sandwich-sized" satellites turned out to be the foundational roots of the Starlink direct-to-device (D2D) constellation we see today.

The pace accelerated in August 2022 with the landmark 'Coverage Above and Beyond' announcement between T-Mobile and SpaceX, aimed at eliminating dead zones. Just weeks later, in September, Apple sent out the invitation for the 'Far Out' event. I remember looking at that shimmering, particle-driven design of the email invitation and thinking it was about diamonds, a premium branding play. It wasn't until the keynote that we realized those weren't diamonds; they were stars signaling the Apple-Globalstar partnership. Those were the exciting times when NTN and Telco interests truly began to converge. Today, in 2026, those stars have finally aligned. The experimental 'T-Satellite' service officially moved into full commercial launch on July 23, 2025, proving that the terrestrial and non-terrestrial convergence is no longer 'far out'; it is our new global standard.

This year, the NTN narrative has evolved beyond simple connectivity. At MWC in 2024/25, NTN, especially direct-to-device satellite connectivity, was a "cool demo." In 2026, it’s a core component of Intelligent Infrastructure. I’m especially excited about the Satellite and NTN Summit.

The MWC 2026 agenda signals a shift toward commercial scale with a great speaker lineup, featuring Keynote sessions with SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, Starlink VP Michael Nicolls, and Eutelsat Group CEO Jean-François Fallacher, alongside the Satellite and NTN Summit which hosts industry leaders like Mike Greenley of MDA Space, Scott Wisniewski of AST SpaceMobile, and senior SES executives Jean-Philippe Gillet and Mohammad Marashi. Additionally, SES CEO Adel Al-Saleh will headline a specialized session, "Skybound 5G: Drones, HAPS, Satellites & the Race to Connect the World," which explores the stratospheric "Goldilocks Zone" and the intensifying competition to bridge global coverage gaps.

Let’s dive into the core trends to understand what the industry is watching in NTN at MWC 2026. To help you navigate more easily, I have listed these trends and included Executive “Kill” (Hard) Questions to cut through the marketing noise during your private sessions and booth visits.

Trend #1: Direct-to-Device 2026: The Satellite-Terrestrial Hybrid Convergence

The narrative has officially shifted from "emergency only" to “commercial scale.” This convergence is beyond the pilot phase and is driven by the full implementation of 3GPP Release 18 standards, which enable 5G smartphones to roam onto satellite networks as seamlessly as they switch to Wi-Fi. As we head into MWC Barcelona, this trend is defined by a high-stakes chess match between terrestrial infrastructure and a new, vertically integrated orbital powerhouse: SpaceX.

While SpaceX continues to ink vital partnerships with operators like T-Mobile and VEON, the latter successfully onboarding 3 million users in Ukraine in just two months, and many others, the $14 billion EchoStar spectrum acquisition by SpaceX in September 2025 has fundamentally changed the game. By securing the AWS-4 "golden band" and H-block spectrum, SpaceX has transitioned from "borrowing" airwaves from telcos to owning a global infrastructure layer.

This highlights a "Shovels vs. Rockets" duel: while telcos are anchored in the 30-year lifecycle of fiber and "Civil Engineering" logic, SpaceX follows an "Aerospace Engineering" velocity, refreshing its hardware every five years. This Hardware Velocity enables SpaceX to integrate breakthrough tech, such as xAI-managed spectrum on Starlink v3 satellites, at a pace that challenges the traditional telco roadmap.

💡Hard Question: "Are telcos securing a long-term partner, or are they helping build the very infrastructure that might eventually offer a directly competitive Starlink-branded mobile service or AI-native device?"

Trend #2: The "Apple Gambit"—The App Ecosystem Goes Orbital

As a direct consequence of D2D becoming commercially scalable, the battlefield has moved from the network to the application layer. Apple has pivoted to "Natural Usage," removing the "point-to-connect" ritual so satellite connectivity works seamlessly from a pocket or a car.

By opening a Satellite API framework to third-party developers, Apple has made the most aggressive move of 2026: enabling off-grid functionality for everyday apps like WhatsApp and Signal. For the industry, this is a strategic inflection point. As satellite support becomes a standard software "utility," the high-margin value is migrating from the network signal to the software ecosystem itself, in other words, value moving up the stack.

💡Hard Question: “In the 2010s, telcos built the 4G roads that the OTTs drove on for free. Now that Apple and SpaceX are building the orbital roads, are telcos securing a strategic 'Smart Pipe' partnership, or are telcos simply paying for the satellite hardware while Apple and xAI 'capture' their premium customer relationships once again?"

Trend #3: Satellite IoT – The Ambient Supply Chain

In 2026, the industry has transitioned from bespoke satellite tracking to Ambient IoT. This shift is powered by the mainstreaming of 3GPP Releases 17 and 18, which enable standard NB-IoT sensors to treat satellites as just another roaming layer. This convergence has slashed hardware costs by 40%, making it economically viable to track millions of low-value assets from factory floors to the open ocean via a single eSIM profile.

The strategic winner in this space is the "Standards-First" model. By shunning proprietary hardware in favor of deep integration with mass-market chipsets, certain providers have enabled global operators to bridge their final coverage gaps. These partnerships enable a device to seamlessly switch between terrestrial and satellite networks using a single eSIM, managed through the telco's existing enterprise portal.

💡Hard Question: "As 'Standards-First' platforms eliminate the need for proprietary hardware, how quickly can telcos transition their IoT stacks to a pure software-defined model to capture the 40% efficiency gain in deployment costs?"

Enjoy MWC Barcelona 2026

And also keep an eye on the following trends: “The Agentic Satellite & AI-Driven Networks”, “The Space Backbone: TeraWave: 6Tbps Backhaul & Space Cloud” & “HAPS: The Stratospheric 'Flying Cell Towers'".

The "IQ Era" is here, and for the first time in history, the sky isn't just a limit anymore; it's our new, ubiquitous infrastructure. I hope you will find these trends on the floor as you explore the future of the telco industry at MWC Barcelona 2026.

BTW, I’m beginning work on an AvidThink multi-vendor NTN research report. If you have interest in participating, drop me a note at [email protected].

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